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January 27, 2004

NH Primary Notes

Around mid-afternoon I drove up to Portsmouth to vote.

The results are now almost all in. Senator Kerry won (again!), Howard Dean a not-close-enough second, Senator Edwards and Wesley Clark basically tied for third. Senator Lieberman is claiming part of the T3, but he's actually 3-4%age pts back in fifth.

The main takeaway here I think is that Dean didn't quite do what he needed to do, and Clark really dropped the ball.

Obviously Kerry is looking very strong now. But I can't shake the feeling that he's not THE GUY. His presentation at both tonight, and last week's victory speechs, was weak. I didn't feel like he was comfortable leveraging the power of his audience's excitement at the win.

To me he really feels like another Dukakis, I think that it is inevitable that he will make some mistake that will sink him.

I think Clark is the big story. He was highly touted when he first came into the race, he got the backing of a lot if heavyweight players like the Clintons and their machine. He skipped Iowa, he said, so he could work NH. Then he couldn't even own third place. Unless something amazing happens in the next couple of weeks, I think he's done.

Edwards is the wildcard. He must show strong in his home state of S Carolina -- which I think is next week -- but if he does win there, and if Kerry falters, which i think is inevitable, then things could change radically.

Stay tuned.

Posted by jghiii at January 27, 2004 11:29 PM
Posted by: Jo Ann on January 29, 2004 03:29 AM

Yeah, good points here! As a Democrat and someone who really wants Bush out of office, I want the candidate who'll beat Bush.

I'm not sure about Kerry--you may be right about him being another Dukakis. But do you really think Dean can beat Bush? I don't see it. I think Kerry has a better shot at beating Bush than Dean. In fact, I know some Republicans who want Dean to win, to ensure Bush his second term!

I like Clark, but with the lack of political experience and just recently becoming a Democrat and all, can he beat Bush? Mmm, I don't know.

Yes, Edwards is the wildcard and if he does well in SC and gets the momentum, he may do quite well. He's got smarts and oodles of charm and charisma (it matters in politics!) and apparently he's already got Bush a little nervous.

All things considered, right now I am thinking Edwards would have the best shot at beating Bush... if, ironically, he can make it that far!

Not that this is relevant, because it's not... just funny. Bill Maher made a comment about how he thinks Kerry looks like the face in the apple tree in the Wizard of Oz that throws apples at Dorothy and the guys as they are "off to see the wizard". He's right! He really does look like the tree; it's kind of bizarre! :-)

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